Day 4 - Sunday 1 September

We woke up to this overnight update on Dorian which has some interesting background information about hurricanes - 

Late Night Dorian Update:

1 No real changes to the NHC (National Hurricane Centre) 11pm forecast track. Winds still 150 mph

2. It looks like the models have "hit a wall" in Dorian's east track. Some models have a subtle drift closer back to the west before lifting north

3. Here's the thing to remember. At this point, the track takes Dorian about 100 miles from the coast. Hurricane winds currently extend 30 miles from the centre. The extreme winds are probably about 10 miles from the centre. Tropical Storm force winds extend just over 100 miles. It could grow a bit over the next few days. So, the key is, to limit issues along the East coast of Florida before it turns, the centre must stay at least 40 miles offshore to avoid hurricane force winds. Maybe 15 miles to avoid extreme hurricane winds and 125 miles to avoid tropical storm force winds. (Give or take) Of course, either way, there will also be rain, coastal flooding and surge issues to remember

4. Dorian is still 3 days away from lifting north as it stalls out in 24- 36 hours. So yes, the trend away from the coast is STILL how we think this plays out, but we're only talking about 75 miles (3 or 4 days out) to REALLY change the impact to the East coast. That's a close call

5. This will not impact most of the Bay (Tampa Bay on the Gulf of Mexico coastline) Area, with the exception of Highlands and Polk Counties (we're in Polk) who could still get stronger Tropical Storm winds if Dorian were to get a bit closer than currently forecast

6. So, it's kind of what I said for the last few days. Don't get too high with the good news, or too low with the bad news. The odds are VERY much in favour of Dorian turning, it's what storms like this do, but will it be 100  miles, 50 miles or even closer to the coast when it does. THAT is the big question. In my opinion, if it stays 50 miles offshore, that's plenty far enough to limit significant damage. The forecast is currently around 100 miles

7. I'll update overnight models as they come in. Rule #7.